Altheon Ventures

Round-up

TSMC spots a decade-long “humanoid wave.” The foundry sees Nvidia Jetson-Thor and Tesla Optimus driving a 2030-2040 upswing in advanced wafer demand, with early 4 nm and 3 nm orders already queued.¹ ([trendforce.com][1])
Beijing’s Big Fund changes course. China’s $50 billion state vehicle is shifting money from handset SoCs to home-grown lithography and EDA to blunt U.S. curbs.² ([bloomberg.com][2])
Arm warns chiplets need a real marketplace. At DAC, Arm said semi-custom approaches inflate total cost of ownership and called for open standards, stronger IP reuse, and Samsung-led 3D packaging to keep Moore’s Law affordable.³ ([eetimes.com][3])

Other developments

Micron’s updated HBM build-out timeline raises capacity questions across three continents.⁴ ([trendforce.com][4])
Rare-earth truce: Washington and Beijing agree to speed magnet shipments critical to fabs and tool makers.⁵ ([reuters.com][5])
Dutch government pledges €70 M (≈ US $82 M) for a Groningen AI compute plant, eyeing sovereign hardware R&D.⁶ ([reuters.com][6])
ASML launches a China-wide lithography talent contest to fill 16 engineering slots.⁷ ([tomshardware.com][7])
Rapidus links with Siemens EDA to push Japan’s 2 nm line toward 2027 production.⁸ ([eetimes.com][8])
Singapore adjourns Nvidia-chip smuggling fraud case to August 22.⁹ ([reuters.com][9])
South Korea’s June export rebound is riding a 22 % jump in semiconductor shipments despite tariff clouds.¹⁰ ([reuters.com][10])

Did you know? TrendForce projects up to 4 billion AI robots on the planet by 2050—more than the current global PC installed base.¹

China’s Big Fund retargets lithography & design ([bloomberg.com][2])
- New grants prioritize high-NA optics, photoresist chemistry, and home-grown EDA flows.
- Move signals less cash for mature-node handset and memory startups.
U.S.–China rare-earth framework ([reuters.com][5])
- Deal clears stalled export licences for NdFeB magnets used in EUV stages and CMP motors.
- White House retains leverage via dual-use end-use checks.
ASML talent push in China ([tomshardware.com][7])
- Online contest offers fast-track interviews for 16 lithography engineers.
- Company hedges revenue slowdown with deeper service footprint.
Singapore fraud case highlights export-control gaps ([reuters.com][9])
- Three defendants accused of routing Nvidia A100s through shell firms.
- Prosecutors cite DeepSeek AI clusters as end-destination.

Micron’s HBM capacity puzzle ([trendforce.com][4])
- Analysts question whether Idaho, Hiroshima, and Gujarat expansions can meet a 25 % share target by Q4.
- Suppliers flag substrate lead times extending past 40 weeks.
Dutch €70 M AI compute plant ([reuters.com][6])
- Groningen hub seeks matching EU funds plus €60 M from the province.
- Aims to anchor local semiconductor startups around sovereign compute.
South Korean export rebound ([reuters.com][10])
- June shipments seen +4.7 % y/y, with chips up 21.8 %.
- Economists warn Q3 softness if U.S. tariff talks stall.
Rapidus-Siemens 2 nm alliance ([eetimes.com][8])
- Calibre-based PDK and “manufacturing-for-design” flow target yield and cycle-time gains.
- Adds to IBM, imec, and Tenstorrent partnerships.

Humanoid-robot chip boom forecast ([trendforce.com][1])
- Nvidia Jetson Thor (300 TOPS, Blackwell) on TSMC N4; Tesla HW5 on N3P.
- TSMC projects $35 B robot silicon market by 2030.
Arm pushes chiplet standards ([eetimes.com][3])
- Calls for UCIe-plus security profiles and modular firmware libraries.
- Mentions Samsung 2.5D/3D packaging pilots in Arm Total Design program.
ASML China talent contest (see Policy)
- Highlights industry-wide skills crunch as high-NA tools proliferate.
China’s lithography R&D surge (linked to Big Fund pivot) ([bloomberg.com][2])
- Universities offering “unlimited compensation” for PhD optical engineers.
- Part of broader effort to localize EUV alternative tech.