July 22, 2025

TSMC’s AI Windfall, EUV Laser Disruptor, and HBM4

Round-up

Highlights

  1. TSMC’s AI engine tops $10 billion in Q2 revenue—just 24 hours after we flagged the foundry’s trillion-dollar market cap, its earnings breakdown shows AI now driving more than one-third of sales, with management guiding the share toward 50 % this year.(TrendForce, Altheon Ventures)
  2. xLight hauls in $40 million to build a home-grown EUV laser, re-opening a strategic flank the U.S. ceded when Cymer was sold to ASML; former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger is on the board.(Reuters)
  3. HBM4 ends SK hynix’s solo run with NVIDIA. Micron and Samsung have delivered 12-layer samples, setting up a three-horse memory race that could pressure prices as early as 2026.(TrendForce)

Other developments

  • NXP warns of soft auto demand; shares slip.(Bloomberg.com)
  • TrendForce sees BT-substrate & fiberglass prices jumping 20 % on AI packaging crunch.(TrendForce)
  • OpenAI-Oracle “Stargate” adds 4.5 GW of data-center build—>2 million chips on order.(Reuters)
  • Republican China-panel chair slams Nvidia H20 export reprieve, demands Commerce briefing.(Reuters)

Did you know? Researchers just demonstrated a quantum-light “factory” on a standard 45 nm CMOS wafer—integrating photons, electrons and control logic on the same die for the first time.(TrendForce)

In-depth

1. Government & Corporate Policy

  • Indonesia drafts its first national AI roadmap

    • Aims to finish next month to woo foreign semiconductor and cloud investors.(Reuters)
    • Offers U.S. co-investment in critical-minerals projects as tariff talks drag on.(Reuters)

  • Capitol Hill backlash over Nvidia H20 license

    • House China committee chair says resumed shipments “undermine U.S. tech primacy.”(Reuters)
    • Requests full license metrics by Aug 8—Commerce yet to respond.(Reuters)

  • Trade watchdogs spotlight “transshipment” abuses

    • Reuters Breakingviews notes tariff spread up to 40 pp is driving origin-label fraud, complicating enforcement.(Reuters)
    • Southeast Asian governments signal tighter checks on chip modules passing through free-trade zones.(Reuters)

  • EUV localization gets policy tailwind

    • xLight says many prototype parts will come from U.S. national labs; investors frame project as correcting past Cymer “mistake.”(Reuters)
    • The firm plans a U.S./allied supply chain to keep exports out of China’s reach.(Reuters)

2. Economics, Finance & Business Outlook

  • TSMC AI revenue crosses the $10 billion mark

    • Ups full-year growth target to ≈30 %, versus the 30 % sales-outlook upgrade we covered yesterday.(TrendForce, Altheon Ventures)
    • Institutional investors see AI mix nearing 50 % as backend capacity ramps CoWoS.(TrendForce)

  • NXP trims Q3 outlook; autos still sluggish

    • Mid-range guide beat consensus, yet investors expected >$3.3 billion—shares fell after hours.(Bloomberg.com)
    • Management points to EV inventory and China price wars.(Bloomberg.com)

  • Packaging inputs turn inflationary

    • Commercial Times data show high-grade fiberglass fabric up to $100 / kg; BT substrate quotes rising 20 % from July.(TrendForce)
    • Beneficiaries: Unimicron, Kinsus, Nan Ya PCB; ASIC houses brace for higher BOMs.(TrendForce)

  • Stargate expansion signals unprecedented chip demand

    • Oracle/OpenAI add 4.5 GW, pushing the JV past $500 billion ambition, ~2 million GPUs/ASICs.(Reuters)
    • Analysts question capex ROI but note bulk orders could tighten 5 nm-class wafer supply next year.(Reuters)

3. Technology & R&D

  • World’s first electron-photon-quantum SoC

    • Boston U., UC Berkeley & Northwestern integrate quantum light source with 45 nm control logic.(TrendForce)
    • Built-in heaters and photodetectors auto-tune 12 ring resonators, paving scalable quantum links.(TrendForce)

  • U.S. comeback bid in EUV lasers

    • xLight leverages particle-accelerator physics; prototype targeted for 2028 in partnership with ASML.(Reuters)
    • Could diversify a single-supplier bottleneck that today dictates leading-edge capacity.(Reuters)

  • HBM4 shakes up high-bandwidth memory

    • SK hynix’s 12-layer lead now challenged by Micron (3 months lag) and Samsung (samples this month).(TrendForce)
    • Goldman forecasts 10 % price drop next year as competition heats.(TrendForce)

  • Cyient + MIPS push domain-specific RISC-V

    • Partnership targets mixed-signal ASICs for industrial/data-center/auto markets on Atlas cores.(EE Times)
    • Strategy favors full custom flows over commodity chiplets, betting on RISC-V determinism.(EE Times)

References